Thursday, December 12, 2013

Broncos Tend to Put Opponents Down in Second Half

+BRONCOS CR3W Lucky #7 (Elway) Keys to the Game

Outside of the one obvious, recent letdown after halftime, the +Denver Broncos tend to show that containing them for 60 minutes is much more unlikely and difficult than the first 30 minutes. They rarely get rattled by early deficits or slow starts and almost seem to wake up after allowing a couple unnecessary plays or turnovers. Some may deem this as "playing with fire." Others might call it "Just a matter of time playing against what has been a +NFL record setting offense that just overwhelms opponents whether it is up tempo or slowed down. One aspect that was perhaps the most encouraging of all of their games this year. #VonMiller has really started to put his imprint as the premier edge rusher in the NFL.

Matt Prater and Britton Colquitt celebrating an NFL
Record 64 Yard FG against the Titans last Sunday.
Photo Courtesy: +NBC Sports (Sports Media Images)
#1 Key: Takeaway Margin: Despite what many would believe, +Denver Broncos with an extraordinary 11-2 record, Sunday's game vs +Tennessee Titans was only the 2nd game this year that the Broncos did not commit a turnover. It was also only the 3rd game of the year that they won the turnover battle as well. This is obviously the aspect that has gripped the Broncos back down this year. It was the first game in which they did not commit a turnover and forced one or more. This is a good sign obviously. Both turnovers were created by +Von Miller who's value cannot be misrepresented and overstated, as to affecting the game entirely with that offense that is putting up historic numbers. With a lead, his effect increases as he can only put pressure on the QB without Jack Del Rio expecting him to stay at home and play things tight and close to the vest in a close ball game.

#2 Key - QB Pressure: Both of these QBs can dissect any defense in the league if they have ample time. Bringing pressure is tough to not risk getting beat on a big play. This number is really what will either make the Broncos season a success or it won't in our opinion. It relies on ball security and especially when the ball security does not hold up on the field. Broncos giving teams free TDs or short fields is a double whammy to them more than most clubs. Anything that takes the record breaking offense off of the field is a negative. Turnovers obviously does this, and if it is in their own half of the field, the opponent is getting the variable that almost all have proven to need to remain in a 'fighter's punch,' distance on the Broncos.

#3 Key - 3rd Down Efficiency: Both sides of the ball. The Broncos are #1 in the league in 3rd down efficiency. The Chargers are #2 in the league in 3rd down efficiency.

+Chargers at +Denver Broncos
Week 15 (Game 14)
Graphic Preview Courtesy:
#4 Key - Redzone Efficiency: Both sides of the ball. The Broncos are #1 in the league in redzone efficiency. Chargers explosive offense drops down to #26 in the league in redzone efficiency.

Leading right up to #5 Key - The reason San Diego is 6-7 instead of on of the leaders for last wild card spot is because teams force FG's over TD's on them. Denver needs to make sure they continue this at home and force FG's by the Chargers offense or 4th down stops as San Diego will go for it when knowing TD's are an element they've got to get. If the Broncos can come out on top of this along with the takeaway's, #1 Key, they should win by about the amount the Vegas books are putting it at. Broncos favored by 10 pts.

#6 Key - Get the Chargers offense off the field, and get pressure on Rivers. Rivers tends to turn the ball over under durress. Von Miller has been electric lately with 5 sacks in his last 6 games. And that doesn't include the sack/pass deflection that was an interception as he met Fitzpatrick at the point of his release.

#7 Key - Allow the numbers and trends to continue. Peyton Manning is undefeated against division opponents since coming to the Denver Broncos. And they have not lost at home this year, with only two losses at home including the Ravens 2OT heartbreaker last year.

QB pressures aside, but if he can cause a takeaway on a regular basis, that is something this Broncos defense had a year ago that put teams on their heels and the defense took full advantage of it. In some respects, the special teams and a few defensive mistakes have been the Broncos defense's culprit. But when it come to being stiff and forcing a punt, they pull it off at a fairly high rate amongst NFL defenses. With the offense doing what it does, it is fairly sensible for the defense to take risks and try to make things happen whereas if they knew they had to be a bit stiffer and more of a bend don't break defense, they would probably have a lot of pass underneath completed but they like to get pressure and force opponents to either make a quick decision or quicker than they want on most plays. Sometimes, the loss of Rahim Moore, clarifies this, since he was one of the leagues best free safeties in denying teams home run plays in pass/run coverage, they will have an adjustment with Bolden, who has mainly been a backup DB his first 3 seasons is now being tossed into live game action as an FS. Defensive Coordinator, Jack Del Rio is surely trying to make adjustments to the loss of Moore and he will minimize that loss especially with a return of a full Champ Bailey and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Pass rush is providing consistent pressure and turnover chances more often because of it. 

(H/T) link below from +Yahoo Sports

Broncos good at overcoming big early deficits

The Denver Broncos shrug off double-digit deficits like Peyton Manning dismisses his cold-weather critics: with a proverbial body slam. Four times this season the Broncos (11-2) have dug themselves an early hole against a lesser opponent and four times they've climbed right out thanks mostly to a turbo-charged offense that's putting up points at a record pace. It would be a good time to start that this week.'' The Broncos are never out of it with No. 18 on their side, something they first recognized last season when they overcame a 24-0 halftime deficit at San Diego, a comeback that propelled them on an 11-game winning streak. They also overcame two-TD deficits this season against Dallas and Washington.